Today’s Top Story – When Will The WA Bubble Burst?

Who would have thought six months ago that the words “travel bubble” would have been used so prolifically, yet alone anyone even thinking of it?  Yet here we are talking about it, hoping that these bubbles will open up between states and glory be internationally.

Western Australia has lived within its own bubble since almost the beginning of the Covid19 living regime.  Early on in this timeline the state was split into regions with travel restricted to within each region only, unless an exemption was given.  And exemptions weren’t given out easily as the government was determined to contain the virus.  Eventually those travel restrictions were lifted except for some remote communities and people were free to move around the state.

But restrictions still apply for people trying to enter the state and an exemption must be granted.  If, however you have been in Victoria you must have a more valid reason than just wanting to visit.

The travel restrictions in WA have had a significant affect on FIFO operations and workers.  Companies have started to employ people only living in WA and some have encouraged their interstate FIFO workforce to consider relocating to WA to avoid quarantining when returning home.  Decisions like this cannot be taken lightly and peoples’ livelihoods are being affected the longer it goes on.  Some people will be suffering economic losses for years to come – let alone the mental anguish that comes with it.

Conversely, those workers who travel from WA to other states for FIFO work are spending most of their time back home in self isolation, which for most of them means having no social interaction until the restrictions are lifted.  Some people have likened it to house arrest, and it is likely to stay in place until mid-next year if the premier sticks to his guns.

Not mining related, but WA people are now exploring more of their own state rather than taking cheap international holidays or flitting over east for a Gold Coast fix or to watch their favourite football team.

It is this writer’s opinion that some borders should be opened up without the onerous restrictions that are still in place even when coming from the Northern Territory or South Australia.  Their Covid19 transmission rate is the same as WAs, which makes them ideal jurisdictions to have free travel with.  All their recent cases have been from returning overseas travelers, the same reason for all the cases currently in WA.

Speaking of overseas, there is now talk from the federal government to looking at travel bubbles between some international locations.  New Zealand is an obvious location to allow this to happen and obviously places the likes of Brazil, USA and England would not be contemplated at the moment.  Other places that are up for consideration are Singapore, South Korea and Japan who all seem to have their Covid19 response well in hand.

But what the federal government wants and what the state and territory leaders allow could be two different things.  A staged process of opening up Australia to other nations needs to be considered now, otherwise restrictions good last for years if a vaccine is not found.

More businesses will flounder the longer restrictions are kept in place, whether that be interstate or international travel.  NSW, ACT and NT are opening their borders to New Zealand as of today, which is a positive step for those jurisdictions.

Australia is the lucky country, there is no mistaking that, but let’s not turn it into a basket case – let’s look for innovative ways we can open the borders.

Today’s Top Story – Western Australia continues to be the envy of the world.

The price of iron ore has never been so important to the Western Australian economy as has been evident in the recently announced state budget.  On the back of soaring iron ore prices, the state government collected nearly $8.45B in royalties from the miners who exported millions of tonnes of the ore to overseas markets, in particular China.

The forecast for the next 12 months shows a similar amount of royalties will be collected before prices start coming off their highs in 2022, or earlier.  It has been a huge windfall for the state and has cushioned the impact of Covid19 on the economy.  While other states’ economies have wallowed, Western Australia has powered on and even produced a healthy surplus for the last financial year.

Whether it was good planning or luck, the decision by the state government to keep miners going, at almost any cost, has proven to be a master stroke.  It didn’t matter if they were mining gold, copper or any other mineral or iron ore, miners ploughed ahead as other industries took a hit.  Fortunately, the mining industry kept alive manufacturers and industry related to the sector.

The state government cannot be complacent though, as it would not take much for the price of iron ore to come off the boil or buyers to disappear.  If Brazil can get Covid19 under control and exports crank up from them, China could well look away from Western Australia as their main source of the ore.  With the sometimes-delicate relationship we have with China it could mean they hit us in the wallet – just because they can.

The price per tonne of iron ore reached a low of $37USD in 2015 and has since soared to be currently sitting at $122USD.  Miners are making the most of it as well as the government and mine expansions are on the increase to cash in on the bonanza.

The miners are also tackling the issue of staffing as the FIFO experience has shown that having workers self-isolate when they travel from interstate is proving costly and is in no way practical.  It isn’t good for workers either who are spending more time away from family, if they are able to travel from interstate.  This is making the companies rethink their strategy of employing someone no matter where they live in Australia and encouraging workers to pack up and move west.

This is creating problems in the housing market across the board as rental vacancies have reached extremely low levels in Perth and major regional centres.  Real estate agencies are experiencing the best sales figures in a long time but unfortunately for sellers the needle is yet to move on house prices.  This will change as supply starts to dry up.  It will probably mean a boon for the state government as stamp duty revenue is sure to increase for them.

During the last mining boom thousands of people flocked to WA to make the most of the circumstances.  When mining went off the boil many returned to the east coast.  Will we see the same happen again and will it be a short term hit or can it be sustained?

Already the unemployment rate in WA has fallen below the expected rate of 8% and likely to fall further if circumstances don’t change because of Covid19.  With changes to Jobkeeper and Jobseeker being phased-in, unemployed people are more likely to seek out employment which will bring the rate down even further.

WA must surely be the envy of the other states, even if the borders are shut to the east coast.  A healthy economy, tourism experiencing healthy numbers from WA locals and mining powering on it all looks rosy for the near future.  Can the government make the most of it and plan wisely for that future?

Morning News Bites – September 3

In Today’s Morning News Bites for September 3. Tax relief on the cards for employees and businesses as Australia records a recession. 92 per cent of West Australians backing Mark McGowan on his hard border policy. BHP will pay investors around a 76.6c dividend on Sep 22.

Gold and base metals explorer Carawine Resources Limited today announced the acquisition of a major new gold exploration project in the world-class Tropicana region of Western Australia’s north-eastern goldfields. Managing Director Mr David Boyd said the acquisitions will create a dominant landholding in the northern Tropicana region of Western Australia, marking the start of a new and exciting stage in the Company’s history. “On completion of these two acquisitions and assuming all Phantom and Carawine tenement applications are granted, Carawine will have secured a large, highly prospective ground position in one of Australia’s premier gold exploration addresses and further strengthened its position in the emerging
Fraser Range nickel province,” Mr Boyd said.

Macarthur Minerals Limited is pleased to provide an update on its continued progress towards completing its route to market for the flagship Moonshine magnetite deposits at Lake Giles. Macarthur and RCR Mining Technologies have completed a site visit to the Port of Esperance in conjunction with representatives from Southern Ports Authority and Arc Infrastructure. Subject to approval by Southern Ports Authority, RCR MT’s cutting edge ‘Helix Dumper Wagon’ (“Helix Dumper”) transport solution for Lake Giles Iron Project can be developed within the Port envelope at Esperance. Macarthur’s market-lead proposal for the development of the Helix Dumper solution will allow optimisation of existing Berth 3 ship-loader capacity at the Port of Esperance, enhancing its current performance from the current 2,220tph throughput to over 4,500tph capacity.

An update on RC drilling activities at the Bulong and Fingals Gold Projects has been provided by Black Cat Syndicate Limited. The first 18 holes (~1,904m) at Fingals Fortune have been completed, targeting shallow extensions to the Fingals Fortune open pit. Results were encouraging with almost every hole intersecting multiple mineralised veins, with highlights including; 3m @ 17.81 g/t Au from 69m (extensional) and 3m @ 40.99 g/t Au from 79m (extensional). Managing Director, Gareth Solly said: “Early results from Fingals Fortune are looking good and provide confidence in the potential for rapid growth of the existing Resource and extensions to the Fingals Fortune open pit.”

Marmota is pleased to provide an update on the current drilling program at Aurora Tank. The first batch of drilling assays from the July/August drilling has yielded an excellent 4m intersection averaging over 25 g/t gold (from 52m downhole). Marmota is expanding this program from approximately 7500m to over 11000m
(still being finalised), with extra holes added at a number of locations including the NW flank and eastern
extensions. Drilling is expected to be completed next week.

Kaiser Reef Limited announce that it has commenced the company’s inaugural drilling programme at the Stuart Town gold project. The drilling will initially test several targets, including the Rockdale mine and the Specimen Hill mine and will commence with RC drilling with some diamond drilling later in the programme. The programme has been targeted with the assistance of geophysical investigation and will initially investigate a few of the prospects within the prolific numbers of historic gold workings in the region. The project has enjoyed very little modern investigation since the main gold mining periods commenced in the mid 1850’s, with the geological model and source of the gold remaining a subject of conjecture.